Delhivery’s stock has seen an impressive rally over the past six months, climbing 89% and reaching a 52-week high of ₹480.50 in August 2025. Despite the surge, brokerage firm InCred has reinitiated coverage with a ‘Reduce’ rating and a target price of ₹300, suggesting a possible downside of 36%. The firm cited concerns such as limited benefits from the Ecom Express acquisition in the near term, rising competition from Amazon and Flipkart’s third-party logistics (3PL) expansion, and weak operating leverage between FY20–25.
While acknowledging Delhivery’s strong momentum—with a 10% rise in August alone and gains in each of the previous five months—InCred noted challenges. The combined express volumes post-acquisition were 21% below FY25 levels in Q1FY26, indicating only a 25–30% annual volume growth. Furthermore, despite revenue growth and segment synergies, Delhivery’s FY24 EBT margin remained at -8%, similar to Ecom Express.
Valuing the stock at ₹300 via a DCF model, InCred assumes a post-FY28 growth rate of 14% with gradual margin improvement. The firm maintains a cautious outlook due to limited upside and operational headwinds.
